Memphis/Mid-South Real Estate Market Update

2019 Quarter 2

The heat of summer was reflected in the Mid-South real estate market. People relocating into the municipal schools districts were met with some high price tags, and lowering interest rates kept things affordable. Let’s recap.

What are the numbers?

• Current Active Inventory at 4,251

• Active Inventory grew each month of Q2 from 3,806 in March

• Average Sales Price up 7.2% in June

• YTD Average Sales Price up 1.3%

• Total Units down 4.8% year-over-year

• YTD Total Units down 2.7%

• Current interest rates around 3.75%

What does this mean to you?

Inventory is still low, but it is on the rise. There were 1,366 pending sales and 4,251 active listings as of June 15th. Using the absorption rate, you would say that there are just over 3 months of inventory on the market. We expect the trend of increasing inventory to continue through the educational summer. We don’t typically see a drop in inventory until August turns into September.

June was an excellent month for sellers. The Average Sales Price for June was up 7.6% over June 2018. That helped our YTD Average Sales Price beat 2018’s numbers, which through May had not yet happened. At the end of May, the YTD Average Sales Price was down half a percent compared to 2018. As interest rates fall and money becomes more accessible, sellers are pushing prices upward.

Year-over-year Total Sales Units were down in June, which marked the third consecutive month that sales did not exceed their 2018 totals. This has been true nationally for 17 months in a row, and we’re beginning to see it here in the Mid-South. Even while interest rates are falling, the market has been unable to meet or exceed the previous year’s performance. My best guess is that buyers are starting to feel the fatigue of low inventory and a competitive housing market.

There are three things you need to know about this metric: 1. If the trend continues, you will see an increase in inventory, and as inventory rises, you will see a decrease in sales prices. 2. We are not there yet, and we are still in a seller’s market. 3. The Porter Group will continue to monitor the market and give you honest, straightforward advice in order to help you make good decisions.

Real estate planning always boils down to your unique goals and challenges. If you need to talk to a professional about the specifics of how today’s market impacts you, give us a call today.

Want some context on these numbers? Check out our Market Indicators series.